Looking ahead to the upcoming Lightweight showdowns - McGregor vs Poirier and Ferguson vs Oliveira

When he announced his retirement after UFC 254, Khabib Nurmagomedov left a huge hole in the sport. The dominant champ and Pound-for-Pound number 1 fighter in the world left the sport having defeated almost all rivals in emphatic fashion. No one could touch him. Even Justin Gaethje, who was judged to be 'The Eagle's' toughest challenge couldn't survive 2 rounds with the mauling Sambo specialist! So where do we go from here? Whilst it remains to be seen if Khabib's retirement is for real, the UFC matchmakers have given us some mouth-watering bouts to look ahead to in the mean time. 

First up on December 12th at UFC 256 we have the return of the Lightweight Boogeyman, Tony 'El Cucuy' Ferguson. He faces a stern test in the form of submission ace Charles 'Do Bronx' Oliveira. This is Ferguson's first fight since he was battered by Justin Gaethje, so it will certainly be interesting to see what impact that has had on him. My guess would be that Ferguson will still employ his usual front foot aggression and relentless pace against Oliveira who doesn't have the same kind of one-punch knockout power as Gaethje, but his striking has improved greatly. In his fight against Kevin Lee, Oliveira did a phenomenal job of weaving together slick combinations that forced Lee to wrestle, which led to the Guillotine finish. Oliveira's Jiu Jitsu skills are well documented, as he holds the record for the most submission finishes in the UFC with 14. Ferguson himself is no slouch on the floor, boasting a BJJ black belt under the tutelage of Eddie Bravo, but I believe his key to victory is to keep the fight standing and not give Oliveira any room to breathe. 

If we look back at Oliveira's fight with Nik Lentz, in which he earned a TKO victory, the Brazilian made a habit of catching the leg of Lentz and eventually landing a big right hand down the pipe. In his rematch with Jim Miller, Oliveira was able to set up a takedown off an inside leg kick from Miller, where he then worked for a Rear Naked Choke and got the finish. Now, Ferguson as we know is a big fan of throwing Teap Kicks to the body and if Oliveira can get a hold of one of those legs then Ferguson could find himself in a spot of bother. Ferguson has only been submitted once outside of the UFC but Oliveira is notoriously a very tricky customer on the feet and on the ground. This is going to be an incredible scrap and one I cannot wait for! 

The next fight we have to look forward to is one of the biggest rematches in UFC history in my opinion given the evolution of both athletes since their first fight. The returning Conor McGregor will look to cement himself as the top dog in the Lightweight division when he faces off against Dustin Poirier on January 23rd at UFC 257. The two last fought 6 years ago at UFC 178 as Featherweights, where McGregor won via TKO in the first round.

Now it would be very easy to assume that their second fight will look similar to the first, but I don't think that could be further from the truth. Since his move up to Lightweight, Poirier has looked phenomenal. He holds wins over Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Max Holloway, all of whom have held some kind of belt in their time in the UFC so his record speaks for itself. In his last fight against Dan Hooker, Poirier showed off the strength of his chin and incredible endurance in a 5-round war. A lot of people are still sleeping on 'The Diamond' in this rematch and are clearly forgetting just how composed he has looked in previous performances, composure being something he lacked in his fight with McGregor at UFC 178.

As for McGregor, we know how dangerous he is, regardless of time away from the cage, his fight against Donald Cerrone at UFC 246 showing just that. With all the talk surrounding McGregor and his commitment to MMA, what with rumours circulating of a fight with Manny Pacquiao at some point, it does make it hard to trust in his talk of his desire to commit to fighting at Lightweight for 2021. While I'd love to sit here and say confidently that a vintage performance against Poirier will keep McGregor in the UFC and not make him stray elsewhere, his previous ventures make me believe otherwise. This fight will without a doubt be a barn burner and whoever emerges victorious is going to have a huge claim to the next shot at the belt!

In terms of the rest of the division, it appears set that Michael Chandler will take on Justin Gaethje as neither men are booked currently. Chandler put out a post of Twitter stating he was beginning camp on Monday (November 30th) and as he was the backup for UFC 254, logically he should be taking on Gaethje for what I assume will be a number 1 contender fight. Dan Hooker who sits at #5 currently should face Rafael dos Anjos in my opinion, who sits at #6 after his fight with Paul Felder. The Lightweight division is so stacked and all of the fights discussed look wild on paper! Hopefully they all come to fruition and we have ourselves and electrifying end to 2020 and an even better 2021!

~ James Eakin

Image credits: [Centre] "Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier 2 lightweight bout set to headline UFC 257 fight card in January", Brent Brookhouse. Available at: https://www.cbssports.com/mma/news/conor-mcgregor-vs-dustin-poirier-2-lightweight-bout-set-to-headline-ufc-257-fight-card-in-january/ [Accessed Nov' 20].