Does Alistair Overeem have a realistic chance of capturing UFC Heavyweight gold?

 

Alistair Overeem is without a doubt one of the most decorated and talented fighters to never win a UFC belt. The former K-1 Kickboxer has been a stalwart of the MMA scene since the early 2000s and held titles in Strikeforce and Dream, as well as competing in the 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix. However, his fortunes in the UFC tell a slightly different story. Bursting into the UFC in 2011 at UFC 141 with a shut-out TKO victory over Brock Lesnar, it seemed only a matter of time before Overeem added the UFC Heavyweight title to his trophy cabinet. 

Unfortunately the fabled days of 'The Demolition Man' were short lived, as two devastating losses to Bigfoot Silva and Travis Browne derailed the Dutchman's title aspirations and put an end to the 'Ubereem' era. It wasn't until 2016 that Overeem finally got his shot at gold against Stipe Miocic, but sadly he came up short again. It is easy to see a pattern in Overeem's record. A couple of good wins, followed by often brutal losses; his fight with Francis Ngannou at UFC 218 comes to mind. Overeem stated after his most recent victory over Augusto Sakai that he had one more title run in him, so let's take a look at what lies ahead for the Dutchman, as he seeks to add the elusive UFC belt to his collection.

Currently residing in the number 5 position in the Heavyweight rankings, Overeem faces a stiff test on February 6th against the 6th ranked Russian striker Alexander Volkov. Should he come through the bout victorious, he then faces somewhat of a dilemma. Overeem holds losses to Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik all of whom currently sit in the number one, two and three spots in the rankings. The only one of those losses that carries a degree of controversy is the loss to Rozenstruik. Having dominated the majority of the fight, Overeem was dropped by a big punch with only a few seconds remaining. Referee Dan Miragliotta waved off the action almost immediately despite Overeem bouncing right back up to his feet, miring the bout with controversy. Rozenstruik is facing off against Ciryl Gane on March 13th and Overeem would be wise to keep a keen eye on the result of that bout, as a redemption victory over Rozenstruik or even more impressive a victory against the undefeated Gane could see him elevated to title contention.

One slight conundrum in the Heavyweight title picture is the introduction of Jon Jones, who has been essentially guaranteed a shot at the title against either Miocic or Ngannou depending on the outcome of the main event of UFC 260. This does present a problem for Overeem who at 40 years old is certainly in the twilight of his career and is quite far back in the pecking order, as Curtis Blaydes has been very close to a title shot for some time now. He faces Derrick Lewis on February 21st and will be looking to make a statement after he received criticism from UFC President Dana White after his win against Volkov. You can't count Lewis out though!

The fight to make should Overeem beat Volkov is arguably the winner of Rozenstruik and Gane, or the loser of Blaydes and Lewis. A win in either one of those prospective bouts for Overeem either represents redemption or a win against a prospect or former title challenger. I believe that Overeem would beat Rozenstruik in a rematch but even if he does he will still find himself behind Blaydes and Jones in line for a title shot. 

The sad reality is that Overeem is potentially as many as 3-4 fights away from another title shot given the current layout of the Heavyweight division, which may likely turn out to be too long a wait for the Dutchman. Perhaps a couple of spectacular victories could fast-track him to a title shot but that is unlikely considering the losses he has to the top 3 of the division. In my opinion, although Overeem has shown that he still has life in the division, I believe that unfortunately it may be too little too late, and we may not see the fairytale ending to his career, but what a story it would be! 

~ James Eakin

Image credits: [Centre] "'The Demolition Man', Alistair Overeem", UFC. Available at: https://www.ufc.com/athlete/alistair-overeem [Accessed Jan '21].